2018 Election viewer’s guide #1
This is the first edition of a note we intend to update through the election. We hope this will help our members understand election results as they are reported.
Trends to watch
Key factors that will determine the result include: turnout in black precincts, among millennials, and among Trump supporters; and how suburban, college educated women vote. Mid-term elections are generally considered “turnout elections” where the party that gets its loyalists to vote wins. Because of the “Trump factor,” there is a possibility of voters who reverse course over their 2016 vote.
Networks do exit polls and interviews all day and often have a good idea of results before noon. They have a mutual promise that they won’t report actual results in any state until the polls IN THAT STATE have closed. That’s why, on a presidential election night, they will announce the winners of a number of states right at the top of the hour, instants after the polls close. During the day they will sometimes give hints. These are not infallible. But are reporters reporting heavy turnout or light (heavy turnout will probably favor the Dems). Are there long lines? (This might indicate heavy turnout, but if the longest lines are in areas heavily populated by minorities or in big cities, it might also indicate voter suppression—harassment of voters and difficulty with check-in or distribution of fewer voting machines to high-minority precincts.)
As the evening proceeds, listen for the talking heads to discuss such things as;
Are college educated suburban white women changing over to vote for Democrats?
Is turnout among African American women and millennials high or low? (high is good for the Democrats)
Are declining industrial areas that went for Trump in 2016, such as Trumbull/Mahoning County, Ohio, or Johnstown, PA, or Detroit returning to vote for Democrats, or are they still with Trump?
Are the results more about turnout or people changing votes?
On the Republican side, are more ultra conservatives being elected? Or moderates? How are House Freedom Caucus members doing? If House Freedom Caucus members hold their own on a difficult night for Republicans, the House GOP caucus might become even more conservative and pro-Trump.
Results to Watch: US Senate
The Democrats need to pick up two seats and the pickings are slim. There are only 9 Republican senators up for election and some of them are pretty safe. Of the 10 seats Democrats hold in states that voted for Trump in 2016, they can only really afford to lose one. The Democrats could lose the Senate early, but if they win it, the news will come late, because any upset loss will upset the result. Beyond the eastern time zone, the most vulnerable Dem’s may be in Indiana (Donnelly), Missouri (McCaskill), and North Dakota (Heidekamp). Possible Dem pickups include Arizona (seat vacated by Flake), Nevada (Heller), and (slight chance) Texas (Cruz v. Beto).
Early US Senate Races to Watch
West Virginia (Joe Manchin seems to have a slight lead over AG Patrick Morrisey),
Ohio (Sherrod Brown looks pretty safe against Rep. Jim Ranacci, but it’s Ohio),
Florida (current GOP governor Rick Scott seems to be running a stronger race than incumbent Bill Nelson and has lots of money; a lost seat for the Dems if Scott wins),
Tennessee (prime spot for a Dem pick-up; Rep. Marsha Blackburn running an awful race and former governor Phil Bredeson is popular).
A little later, watch the races in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Incumbents Amy Klobuchar and Tammy Baldwin should win. If one of them loses, Democratic control of the Senate is probably out of reach.
Results to Watch: House
“Moderate” Republican seats to watch early in the evening
Virginia 2 and 10 Taylor and Comstock
NJ 11. Open (Frelinghuysen seat)
PA 7 and 17 Dent seat and Rothfus
NY 19 and 22: Faso and Tenney
MI 8 Bishop
NC 9 Pittinger seat
NJ 3 and 7 MacArthur and Lance
Significance: These are the seats Democrats need to win if they hope to control the House. If Democrats are winning these seats relatively easily, it will probably be a good night for Democrats. If Republicans hold a good percentage of these seats, the blue wave is less likely
Are the prominent Trump apologists being punished?
Matt Gaetz (Florida 1)
Jim Jordan (Ohio 4)
Mark Meadows (NC 11)
Devin Nunes (CA 22)
David Brat (Virginia 7)
Scott Perry (PA 13)
Significance: The first four House Freedom Caucus members are not considered in jeopardy (Brat’s race is rated a tossup and Perry v. Scott is approaching tossup status). If high profile conservatives start losing early, that could indicate a really bad night for Trump supporters.
Races with symbolic important (or human interest)
WI 1 Paul Ryan’s seat
WA 5 Cathy McMorris Rogers
Significance: If the party repudiates its leadership (or even seats that have been held by leadership), that can indicate a really bad might at the polls.
Races to Watch: States
In subsequent updates, we’ll report on key state races, including governors and battles over full party control of a state. One to watch:
Florida governor: Ron De Santis (who campaigned as the ultimate Trump loyalist) v. progressive Andrew Gillum. Gillum has opened a narrow lead.