Impacts of Republican retention of both houses
We’ve written several times about “what’s at stake?” if the Democrats control one or both Houses of Congress. But that result is by no means guaranteed. We should think about the opposite: what’s at stake if the GOP retains control of Congress.
One thing is guaranteed: it won’t be “more of the same.” If the GOP maintains control, particularly if they pick up a few seats in the Senate, it will be a more Trumpish, emboldened, and more confrontational Congress.
There have been two characteristics of this Congress. First, it has shown an uncommon ability to tolerate and eventually support everything President Trump says and does. Second, it has approved a remarkably small amount of legislation. Especially if the Republicans increase their margin in the Senate, it is likely that a new Congress would be much more active legislatively.
Trump’s sense of control will be even higher than what we have seen in the past months. Attacks on the Mueller investigations and mass pardons for the targets of the investigation are a distinct possibility if the Republicans maintain control of both Houses. It isn’t likely that the GOP caucus would confront Trump on this issue. His independence to pursue overseas deals that benefit his companies will also grow.
Health care and social security
Health care, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid will all come in for renewed attacks, probably under the reconciliation process. A Senate with one-seat Republican control fell just short of an outright repeal of the ACA; with a 3-4 vote cushion, it becomes much more likely. The GOP “replace” program is certain to include consignment of people with pre-existing conditions to high risk pools, so-called “junk insurance” with minimal coverages, and major cuts to Medicaid funding.
Republicans have made no secret of their disdain for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid but have been reluctant to move forward with a major, frontal attack. Ever since Trump’s election, the GOP has openly acknowledged their understanding that this is a once in a century opportunity to roll back much of the legacy of the Great Society and New Deal. If they get an unexpected two-year extension on their majority, it is likely that they will finally take on the issue of social safety net and entitlement programs,
Budgets
Although the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, the nearly even split of the US Senate has constrained the Administration’s and House Budget Committee budget proposals calling for severe cuts in social programs. For the past two years, Congress has basically “kicked the can down the road,” approving short-term budget extensions and avoiding the “showdown” over social programs and entitlements. A newly emboldened GOP that has retained both Houses of Congress is certain to take a harder line on this fundamental issue.
Local funding
Administration and House Budget Committee budget proposals since Trump’s inauguration have proposed steep cuts in many programs that provide substantial benefits to Adams County: Community Development Block Grants; weatherization programs, training, nutrition, and housing programs; Legal Services; etc. These cuts will become much more likely if Republicans maintain control of Congress.
Many of these programs are administered by SCCAP, a vital part of our community for more than 50 years that would be severely threatened under another two years of GOP control.
Other actions
Besides attacks on Healthcare and budgets, a newly emboldened GOP can be relied on to take other actions. These include:
Faster moves to shrink/exploit parks and exploit natural resources
Renewed proposals calling for the privatization of education (vouchers, charters, etc.), Department of Veterans Affairs, and federal power systems
Renewed attacks on Immigration (ICE enforcement, immigration law, DACA, etc.)
The stakes in the November election are as high as any election of our lifetime. It is slightly depressing to think that the “good” results are almost entirely defensive. Few are talking about much except preventing even more damage than the Trump administration has already done. Partly a result of gerrymandering and voter suppression, partly a result of the Democratic party’s uncommon difficulty in developing a message and organizing voters, the upside isn’t very high.
There were many naïve progressives who viewed the possible election of Trump with a degree of calm two years ago. “That’s ok, things will get so bad that we’ll sweep them all out of office in 2018 and then we’ll get free college tuition, Medicare for all, and the rest of those good things.” The current situation gives us a reminder that EVERY election is an important one. We are in this position today largely because progressives threw their votes away two years ago. Let’s not repeat that mistake.
Leon Reed is a retired Congressional aide and defense consultant. He is a member of the Government Accountability Task Force of the Gettysburg Democracy for America.