The death of conventional wisdom in politics
Conventional Wisdom: noun: the generally accepted belief, opinion, judgment, or prediction about a particular matter.
Do you remember when Conventional Wisdom, let’s call it CW, said no divorced man could be elected President? Not that long ago, was it? Some CW precepts die without a whimper, reflecting shifts in community mores, or generally accepted beliefs. Nelson Rockefeller, who was politically handicapped by a divorce in the early 60’s went on to be confirmed as Gerald Ford’s Vice President, a heartbeat away from the Presidency, in 1974. Rep. Morris Udall (D-AZ) ran a close second for the Democratic nomination in 1976 and no one seemed to care, or even notice, that he had been divorced. Then, of course, Ronald Reagan, the well-known divorcee of stage and screen was elected in 1980 and re-elected in 1984. And, now we have a multiple divorcee in office.
Dispensing with the Conventional Wisdom (CW) on divorce was relatively easy and the right thing to do in the 70’s and the 80’s. But politics and government have always run best when CW operated almost like the unwritten rules of baseball. For example, there are things that, despite the letter of the law or the rule, should or should not be done to assure continued and smooth operation of government, even when inevitable disagreements arise. In baseball, that might mean not bunting to advance a runner in the eighth inning when you are ahead by ten runs (poor sportsmanship). In government, that means you can vote against a particular bill, but refrain from demonizing the bills’s supporters (poor form).
There are things on the political side that should be done to assure fair and open races. These principles of “should” allowed for efficiency in political campaigns, but also legitimacy and a certain predictability. First among these principles is that the voters should decide. The legendary “smoke filled backrooms” finally went the way of the horse and buggy with the McGovern reforms of 1972 in the Democratic Party rules, versions of which have been emulated by Republicans over the years. The aims of inclusiveness and openness actually led to a newer and fresher version of CW, but one that has been overturned and superseded in both spectacular and more subtle ways in recent years.
The arrival in the 1980’s of the perpetual campaign atmosphere in Washington was the first major break in bipartisan Conventional Wisdom, namely the belief that campaigns were for campaign season. When elections were over, it was time to tend to the “people’s business.” Campaign-type rhetoric and tactics began to overtake the legislative process in Washington and many state capitals. CW was being stood on its head and made to accommodate a new goal for each party separately: winning at any cost.
On the most spectacular level, we now have a resident in the White House who denigrated a certifiable war hero, physically mocked a handicapped reporter, was captured on audio tape admitting to sex abuse of women. At each of these junctions CW pronounced him disqualified, out of the race, no way can he survive this. And the story continues. As president he continues to defy any and all notions of CW: hurling gratuitous insults at perceived opponents, castigating broad swaths of the American electorate and generally failing to assume the traditional role of presidential comforter and consoler in chief. CW seems to be a thing of the past for this person and his followers.
Curiously, CW seems to be playing a bigger and bigger role in Democratic circles. Do Democrats really believe that abandoned notions of Conventional Wisdom will finally catch up to the person now in the White House? Is that why they continue to use CW to judge and disqualify potential Democratic candidates for the Presidency? In the CW way of thinking Joe Biden is too old and he messed up in the Clarence Thomas hearings 27 years ago. Disqualified! Elizabeth Warren finds herself in a personal tussle with the person in the White House over her ethnic heritage. CW says she has mishandled this; therefore, she is disqualified! Corey Booker makes an unfortunate reference to himself as Spartacus in the Kavanaugh hearings: disqualified! Most disturbingly, elites of the party of Hubert Humphrey and Claude Pepper (you could look them up) say Nancy Pelosi should give up her House leadership because CW says she’s too old.
You can go on and on. Is this where CW and PC have collided? Will Democrats ever find that prized, totally unblemished jewel of a candidate who can resist all the nicknames and ridicule that will surely come from the one in the White House? And will that precious gem be cast aside when he or she responds in a way that doesn’t pass CW muster?
Let me simply say that Conventional Wisdom, as we have known it, is now dead. It died officially with the 2016 Presidential election and there is probably no way to get it back in the foreseeable future. As a result, no election is predictable now in the way it once might have been. All tactics are permissible. All gloves are off. Voters are going to be voters. And non-voters, a growing number it seems, will be registering their disapproval as always—by not voting. The media will continue to report and commentate on elections as if they are fourth grade food fights. Forget Conventional Wisdom. Fasten seat belts, raise your seat backs and stow the tray table in front of you. We’re in for quite a ride without the air traffic control system that used to be known as Conventional Wisdom.
(To the reader: The concept for this article is still a work in progress. I’d appreciate your comments, pro or con, and any examples you might add to illustrate how Conventional Wisdom was or was not helpful and whether it still applies to our systems of politics and governance. You can reach me at bgilmartin49@yahoo.com.)
William Gilmartin is leader of the Government Accountability Task Force of Gettysburg Area Democracy for America.