March 2018 meet-up: "The Real State of the Union"

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We had three distinguished faculty members from Gettysburg College speak March 7, 2018 on the theme of "the Real State of the Union," Dr. Shirley Warshaw, Poli Sci; Dr. McKinley Melton, English; and Dr. Charles Weise, Economics. Outstanding presentation.

A very top level summary of a very sophisticated discussion:

  1. Relax, we've survived Nixon, Reagan, and the Bushes, and we'll survive this.

  2. It's important to organize and vote; don't just get mad and yell at your TV -- get out and register voters, go door to door, be sure you and your neighbor vote.

  3. President Trump is the least popular president after a year in office of any US president since 1946 (Truman)

  4. Presidential unpopularity almost universally predicts heavy election losses in the House for the presidential party in the off-year elections

  5. Professional, career civil civil servants are an important bulwark to keep government functioning in a professional way and to protect/preserve our political processes.

  6. In analyzing the "real state of the Union," it's important to acknowledge that we don't all live in the same America.

  7. The country is deeply divided: there are many people who believe that some other undeserving group (immigrants, blacks, etc.) is "siphoning away the American Dream that we deserve."

  8. The image of Chicago illustrates the partisan and racial uses of information. In reality, Chicago is something like 24th in the rate of violence, but the image of Chicago as a war zone has been widely sold and believed.

  9. Trump politics are not all new. Many Trump supporters recognize "that's what I say at the bar," and the difference is more that it's now being said in public.

  10. We need to understand how a person who started his campaign by accusing an entire nation of being murderers and rapists can be elected president. This message resonated with millions of our friends and neighbors and he still has millions who support this message.

  11. We live in a country with growing disparities in wealth and income. Since 1979, real GDP has increased by more than 170% while median real wages have increased by 3% and has actually declined at the bottom.

  12. Since the end of the 2007 recession, the minimum wage has declined by 10% in real terms and almost all the benefits have accrued to the top 10%.

  13. Liberal economists have traditionally advocated an expansive economic policy, low interest rates, toleration of a little bit of inflation to keep the economy expanding. It is ironic and a little surprising that, under Trump and a Republican-controlled legislature, we are living through perhaps the most expansionist policy ever, with growth in spending, tax reduction, and large increases in the deficit. We can probably also assume that President Trump will pressure the Fed to keep interest rates low. (The distribution of the spending is wildly distorted but the policy is still highly expansionist.)

  14. Wages don't increase by themselves and companies don't increase their workers' wages just because they're highly profitable. In fact, there are many trends that work to keep wages down, including the increased domination of industries by a small number of very large firms, collusion between employers (agreeing not to hire workers from their competitors, and the proliferation of mandatory non-compete clauses to workers such as fast food workers who have no access to trade secrets).

  15. Ideas worth considering include: a Federal job guarantee or guaranteed income. Under the federal job guarantee, funds would go to groups (locally) like SCCAP or the Lincoln Intermediate Unit and people would be gainfully employed performing useful services (day care, infrastructure, etc.)

  16. Polarization and lack of support for government.

    1. One reason support for government has declined since the 1960s is the "nationalization of public policy." Benefits and programs you receive from close at hand are easier to understand and justify.

    2. There is widespread support for programs which everyone gets (Social Security, Medicare). Means tested programs are easier to deride as going to "them." Many people believe that "others" (e.g., illegals) are getting massive benefits and living at "my" expense.

  17. Widespread and highly partisan gerrymandering (which began in the mid-1990s with Karl Rove for the 2002 redistricting and was "perfected" in the 2012 redistricting) involves a deliberate effort to draw "safe" districts, with the result that the elected representatives increasingly are elected by the party base and come to Washington with little incentive to "work across the aisle" and work for compromise.

  18. Public discourse and "fake news'

    1. There is a lot of information and a "dearth of critical thinking" on how to analyze these narratives.

    2. People tend to shut down at information that doesn't support their preconceived ideas.

    3. Somewhat optimistically, people have become much more savvy about TV commercials. Perhaps we will develop a more skeptical adttitude about "fake news" as well.

Taken from notes. Apologies to the panelists if I mischaracterized anything.

 

Leon Reed