2018 Election viewer’s guide #2

These election guides discuss the key issues and highlight races that might indicate early on election night how the elections are trending. This guide will be updated now and then and posted on the DFA web page (www.gettysburgdfa.org). 

This version is based on the 538.com Oct 7 forecast; forecasts fluctuate daily.

Trends to watch for.

Some broad trends will affect the 2018 results and might also have an influence on how the 2020 campaign shapes up.

  • Turnout (heavy turnout favors Dems). Among black voters? Young voters? Women?

  • Did Democratic progressives or “moderates” do better? Is the Democratic caucus moving to the left?

  • Are there any signs that the “Midwest electoral wall” is being reconstructed? Is the “declining industrial state Trump voter” returning to the Democratic party? 

Thirteen Senate races that will determine control of the Senate (538.com, 10/7, 3:00 pm)

Senate election night math: Counting seats not up for election (42 R, 28 D) and “solid,” the Senate makeup before the election is 41 Dem’s, 46 Rep’s. To control the Senate, the Democrats need to win 10 of the 13 races noted below. 538.com (Oct. 7) gives them a 2/9 chance.

Democrats representing Red states. Sherrod Brown (OH), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Tammy Baldwin (WI), and Bob Casey (PA) also represent states won by Trump but are considered safe.

Indiana:          Joe Donnelly/Mike Braun (Likely D, polls close at 7:00)

Florida:            Bill Nelson/Rick Scott (Lean D, polls close at 7:00)

WV:              Joe Manchin/Patrick Morrisey (Likely D, polls close at 7:30)

Missouri:         Clair McCaskill/Josh Hawley (Tossup, polls close at 8:00)

Montana:        Jon Tester/Matt Rosendale (Likely D, polls close at 10:00)

ND:                  Heidi Heitkamp/Kevin Cramer (Lean R, closing times vary)

 

Other Democratic incumbents who aren’t quite safe include:

New Jersey     Robert Menendez/Bob Hugin (Likely D, polls close at 8:00)

Minnesota       Tina Smith/Karin Housley (Likely D, polls close at 9:00)

 

Republican held tossups

Arizona (Flake seat):    Kyrsten Sinema/Martha McSally (Lean D, polls close at 9:00

Nevada:                        Jacky McRosen /Dean Heller (incumbent) (Tossup, polls close at 10:00

TN (Corker seat):          Phil Bredeson/Marsha Blackburn (Lean R, polls close at 8:00)

Texas:                           Beto O’Rourke/Ted Cruz (incumbent) (Lean R, polls close at 8:00)

MS (Cochran seat):       Mike Espy/Hyde-Smith (Likely R, polls close at 8:00)

 

House races, (538.com, 10/7, 3 pm)

Fivethirtyeight.com gives the Democrats’ a 3/4 chance of gaining control of the House. The October 7 “most likely” prediction for the makeup of the House that convenes in January 2019 is 228 Dem’s and 207 Rep’s. 

Even in a turbulent year such as 2018, there is no contest in the vast majority of House races. In all likelihood, control of the House will be determined by 41 races that are currently rated “Lean Democrat” (6), “Tossup” (15), and “Lean Republican” (20). Unlike the Senate, we’ll probably have a good idea by 8:30. 

Likeliest House seats (early poll closing) to change party control (all Republican-held)

Florida 27:       Shalala/Salazar (Likely D, polls close at 7:00)

NC 9:               McReady/Harris (Tossup, polls close at 7:00)

NC 13:             Manning/Budd (Tossup, polls close at 7:00)

VA 5                Cockburn/Riggleman (Tossup, polls close at 7:00)

VA 10:             Westburn/Comstock (Likely D, polls close at 7:00)

NJ 2                 Van Grew/Grossman (Solid D, polls close at 8:00)

NJ 3                 Kim/McArthur (Lean D, polls close at 8:00)

NJ 7                 Malinowski/Lance (Tossup, polls close at 8:00)

NJ 11               Sherrill/Webber (Likely D, polls close at 8:00)

MI 8                 Slotkin/Bishop (Tossup, polls close at 8:00)

MI 11               Stevens/Epstein (Likely D, polls close at 8:00)

PA 5                 Scanlon/Kim (Solid D, polls close at 8:00)

PA 6                 Houlahan/McCauley (Solid D, polls close at 8:00)

PA 7                 Wild/Nothstein (Likely D, polls close at 8:00)

PA 17               Lamb/Rothfus (Likely D, polls close at 8:00)

NY 22              Brindisi/Tenney (Lean D, polls close at 9:00)

 

Other tossup races reporting early

Polls close at 7:00: FL 26 (Muriscal-Powell/Curtelo); Kentucky 6 (McGrath/Barr)

Polls close at 8:00: TX 7 (Panill-Fisher/Culberson); KS 3 (Davids/Yoder); KS 2 (Davis/Watkins)

Polls close at 9:00: NY 19 (Delgado/Faso)

Polls close at 10: Iowa 3 (Axne/Young)

House races of local interest

PA 13 (Ottaway/Joyce):      Safe Republican, polls close at 8:00

PA 10 (Scott/Perry):            Likely Republican (52.5%-47.5%)

 

Governor’s races.(Real Clear Politics, 10/7, 4:45 pm)

Gubernatorial races most likely to switch to Democrats

Likely switch from R to D: Illinois               Lean Dem: Maine, Michigan, New Mexico

Tossups held by Republicans*: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin

 *  Oregon is the only tossup governor seat currently held by the Democrats

Leon Reed