Can we turn Pennsylvania 13 purple?
OK, here’s a secret. Don’t tell anyone: John Joyce has a pretty safe seat. In 2022. Probably in 2024. But 2026 and later? All depends.
Turning the Pennsylvania 13th into a competitive district will be a tall order. The 13th District of Pennsylvania isn’t a purple district, or anything close. When James Carville made his infamous remark about “two big cities, and the rest is basically Alabama,” electorally, he could have been talking about this district. Sitting out here at the east end of the district in Adams County, our 2:1 Republican registration edge seems positively Manhattan compared to some parts of the district.
But things can change a lot in a few years. MAGA fever burns hot right now. Will it five years from now? Will those red culture war issues still appeal?
Will Republican designs on contraceptives, social security, and Medicare become obvious enough?
Will the Reagan Democrat-type voters in towns like Altoona and Johnstown recognize that supply side tax cuts, deregulation, and Union-busting have done nothing for them and that banning critical race theory and transgenders don’t either
Like I say, things could change and today’s safe Joyce voter might tire of a MAGA bitter-ender and take a good look at a pro-labor, Tim Ryan-type candidate to run against Joyce.
I’ve been looking around the 13th District for some time now, haunting the Facebook rooms of groups such as Cambria Democrats and Blair Indivisible. What I see is people who know that they’re outnumbered and who draw resolve from that. High spirits. Picnics. “Who wants to get together for some canvassing?”
Maybe what most impresses me, lots of “Where Can I Get Yard Signs?” requests. Putting up a yard sign is impressive anywhere, but it is especially impressive in a county with a 3:1 edge in Republican registration.
What I see in the 13th district is a far-flung district with a mediocre, all-MAGA, all-the-time congressman and lots of pockets of activism and enthusiasm. For now, those pockets are working alone and probably wondering if they’re the only organized progressives/Democrats in the 13th District. Get together, develop a district-wide message, share ideas: who knows where that could lead?
So, where to start? Understand the district.
1) What are the demographics of the red vote (how many Reagan Dems? How many “crime and inflation” suburbanites? MAGA? Amish?),
2) Where are the blue enclaves and other handholds to build support (college towns? industrial towns? immigrants?)
Cook Political Report and 538.com, make an appointment to move Pennsylvania 13 from the “safe red'“ to the “leans red” list in 2026 and to the “tossup districts” club two years later.
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This series is written to promote political discussion and organizing. Permission is given to use this in fact sheets, talking points, letters to the editor, etc. We’d appreciate if you notified Gettysburg DFA (leonsreed@gmail.com) of any uses. Written by Leon Reed.