Election chaos 2020
Increasingly President Trump is losing ground in the 2020 election. He is losing in both national polls and in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He seems out of touch with the national mood not only in fighting the pandemic but also in confronting institutional, systemic racism. Some Republican strategists are begging him to reach out beyond his base of supporters and try to unite the country. So far the President has resisted that advice.
The Trump campaign may have a completely different approach to winning this election. President Trump has never achieved 50% approval in any legitimate poll since his Presidency began. He received 46% of the vote in the 2016 election. So it is a safe bet to predict he will not win the popular vote in 2020. His campaign strategists know this, and may be thinking of other ways for President Trump to achieve a second term. By suppressing the vote, creating chaos on election day, and invoking emergency powers, there may have a path to retain a Trump Presidency without winning the popular vote. It may just work.
Some Republican controlled states such as Georgia and Wisconsin have been busy purging voter rolls. The main target is urban, minority voters. The Trump campaign also has threatened or sued states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania to suppress mail-in ballots. The campaign is also training 50,000 poll watchers to monitor, challenge, and possibly intimidate voters on election day. All of these activities are designed to suppress the vote and create chaos on election day.
On June 22, President Trump tweeted, “Rigged 2020 election: millions of mail-in ballots will be printed by foreign countries and others. It will be the scandal of our times.” President Trump seems to be laying the groundwork for challenging the election results. Here is how one scenario could work. (For a more detailed look at this strategy, read Tim Wirth’s and Tom Rogers article in the July 3, issue of Newsweek).
1. Biden wins the popular vote and carries the swing states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, by decent but not overwhelming margins.
2. Trump immediately declares the voting was rigged. He claims the Chinese were behind a plan to provide mail-in ballots and other election hacking to give Biden the victory in the four swing states above.
3. Trump declares there is a national security emergency and directs the Justice Department to investigate the alleged national security breach in the four swing states.
4. All four swing states have Republican controlled legislatures. They refuse to declare a slate of Electoral College electors until the national security investigation is completed.
5. The issue goes to the Supreme Court. The Court does not side with Republicans like they did in Bush v. Gore. However, they do cite precedent from that Case by requiring the investigation process be completed by the time the Electoral College is scheduled to vote – in this case by December 14.
6. The investigation continues after December 14 with no resolution. The Electoral College votes, but without those electors from the four swing states, neither Biden nor Trump have sufficient votes to gain an Electoral College majority.
7. The election is then referred to the House of Representatives pursuant to the Constitution. The vote in the House is by state delegation with each state having one vote. That state vote is determined by which Party has the most Representatives.
Currently 26 states have Republican controlled delegations while 23 states are Democratically controlled. Pennsylvania is evenly split with 9 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Some mechanism would need to be developed to include Pennsylvania, but if voting was along Party lines, President Trump would receive a majority of the state votes and would be elected to a second term.
This scenario seems improbable because so many pieces need to come together. It would be like drawing an inside straight in poker. However, before you dismiss it completely, ask yourself a couple of questions: Would President Trump be willing to try this? Would Attorney General Barr be a willing partner? Who would stop this post-election chaos – the US Senate, the Supreme Court, the State Legislatures? President Trump has upended many institutional guardrails with no consequences. This would be just one more.
Whether this scenario comes about or not, we need to be prepared for a wild ride toward this 2020 election. Dig out a copy of your Constitution. We may need it.
R. Tom Deloe is a Cumberland Township resident.