The Trump reelection strategy: A preview
A few short months ago Donald Trump’s reelection prospects were riding high. The economy was in good shape. Unemployment was low. Even wages were finally beginning to rise. Democrats appeared to be in disarray with Bernie Sanders as the likely Democratic candidate. While Trump's approval ratings were still below 50%, he could campaign on the economy and rail against a Democratic Socialist. Even former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (not a Trump favorite) stated that, “The election was Trump’s to lose.”
What a difference a few months make! As of this writing, the corona virus has killed 76,000 Americans. More than 30 million people have applied for unemployment insurance since March. April’s unemployment rate was 14%. These are depression level numbers. President Trump’s approval ratings have tumbled because a majority of the electorate think his leadership has been lacking during the crisis.
How has the Trump reelection team responded to this sudden turnaround? What is their strategy going forward? Here is a sneak preview of what we will can expect in the coming months.
1. Declare Victory and Pivot to the Economy. Team Trump no longer wants President Trump to be associated with this virus. Their approach is to declare victory and move quickly to open up the economy. This strategy emphasizes an Administration victory instead of an Administration failure. On April 16, President Trump declared, “We have passed the peak in new cases. We are starting the rejuvenation of our economy.”
A corollary to this strategy is to delegate the fight against this virus to the States. The idea here is to shift the blame to blue State Governors if Covid – 19 cases go up, but also pressure States to open for business. Team Trump realizes his best hope for reelection now is to get the economy moving again. Trump recently tweeted: “States are safely coming back. The Country is starting to OPEN FOR BUSINESS again.” The hope (and it is just a hope) is that the virus will dissipate during the Summer and Fall months, and the economy can slowly come back. Trump can then declare victory that he is bringing the country back.
2. Deflect Blame. Team Trump has decided to fully shift the blame for the virus to China. President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have strongly implied that the virus started in a Chinese lab in Wuhan. The implication is that the Chinese may have purposely exposed the world to this virus. There is no evidence of this, but Pompeo and Trump hope to raise the possibilities. China will not only be accused of starting the virus but also stealing American jobs, exporting fentanyl into the US, and stealing our technologies. Democrats will be blamed for being “soft on China.”
Republican candidates have been instructed to not criticize the Administration’s response to the virus. Instead they should defend President Trump’s actions and blame China.
3. Sow Division. Team Trump has always focused on railing against the usual suspects: immigrants, the media, blue State Governors, minorities, and “do nothing Democrats like Sleepy Joe.” As an example, Trump has banned any immigrant coming into the Country for the next 60 days. We can expect similar actions going forward.
The question is: Will this cynical strategy work? Right now President Trump is either even or underwater in critical States he needs for his reelection including: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Winning them will be a tough climb. However, the election is not until November, and much can happen until then. Trump has a ton of money, an excellent reelection staff, and a social media presence that Democrats can only dream about. Also, he has his bully pulpit.
In the past, hundreds of people have been wrong in counting Donald Trump out. The draft board during the Vietnam war tried unsuccessfully to draft him six times. Creditors watched as he declared bankruptcy six times. He has survived the Trump University scandal, sexual improprieties, the Mueller investigation, and impeachment. He is nothing if not a survivor. Whether he can do it again seems unlikely, but you can never count him out.
R. Tom Deloe is a resident of Cumberland Township.