2020 Election viewer's guide, version 1
It has become a truism that ‘we won’t know who won for days, maybe weeks, after the election.” But there will be races reporting on election night, some of them early in the night, that will give an impression how the election is going. This short paper analyzes key races and suggests key races and trends that could suggest early in the evening which way the election results may be trending.
Election night count
Because of record absentee/early/mail-in voting, the count reported on election night is likely to be a lower percentage of the voting population than usual. Because Democrats were more likely to use early/absentee methods, it’s also likely that the election night count may not be representative of the overall vote count; election night counts might overstate Republican support in some cases.
Constituencies
The votes of certain key constituencies are a building block component of the electorate. The importance of any given constituency in any battleground state will vary. But in total, changes from 2016 voting patterns will add up to the result of this election.
Suburban women, college-educated. This is traditionally a key Republican constituency. Polling suggests there have been massive defections in this group. If this proves true when the votes are counted, this factor alone could determine the election. Pay attention to the networks’ reports of how suburban women are voting. If there’s a big shift, it will be a long night for Republicans.
Black vote turnout in cities. Black turnout, especially among males, was lower In 2016 than the two previous elections, particularly in cities such as Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit. Whether turnout levels remain at 2016 levels or return to levels more like 2012 will be a key determiner.
Senior citizens. There are suggestions that President Trump’s reaction to the Covid 19 virus and his threats to social security have eroded his support in this traditionally Republican group. If Democrats pick up just a few percentage points of support from this group, it could be a no good very bad day for the GOP.
White male non-college graduates have formed the core of Trump’s support. There have been suggestions of some erosion among this key group. If Biden picks up just a few percentage points, the party is on.
5 key counties
NBC has identified five “key counties,” one each in key battleground states. They have suggested that these five counties collectively are a good barometer of how these five key battleground states – and therefore the election – will go. Once results start coming in, there will undoubtedly be a lot of coverage of how things are going in these five counties.
Beaver County, PA: Trump won this key county by 19% in 2016. The economy is affected by closure of steel mills that Trump promised to save. The key question is whether his support among white blue collar workers and independents is reduced significantly.
Kent County, MI: Trump won this county by 10,000 votes in 2016. The question is whether there is significant erosion of support for Trump in this urban-rural district, which is the home of Grand Rapids.
Maricopa County, AZ: Formerly the home of the notorious ‘Sheriff Joe” Arpaiao, this suburban-rural district was dependable Red territory that is turning purple. The question is how much suburban growth and cultural changes affect the vote in this populous county.
Miami-Dade County, FL. The Democrats need a large surplus of votes to come out of this traditionally Democratic county to overcome Republican votes in other parts of the state. Turnout and the percentage vote among Latinx voters (many of whom are Cuban) are both vital. Initial reports of lower than expected turnout in early voting have Democrats alarmed.
Milwaukee County, WI. A center of Republican voter suppression efforts, Milwaukee will overwhelmingly give Biden their votes; the question is turnout, which in 2016 was disappointing. Turnout will once again be vital; piling up a big lead in Milwaukee is necessary to carry the state.
Presidential
Overview. 2016 vote: 306-232. To win, Biden needs to make a net pickup of 39 electoral votes. While the three key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) aren’t likely to present their total votes immediately, there are numerous ways the results will be made known. The most likely Trump states to shift blue appear to be, in order: Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (16), Nebraska 2 (1), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), PA (20), and Texas (38). All of these seem more likely to shift blue than any state is to shift to the red.
W2W4: The three key states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) are also the states most likely to report late. If Florida goes blue, it’s over. Of the early reporting states, if Georgia or North Carolina or Texas go Democratic, especially if they are called quickly, it’s likely to be a good evening for Dems.
States that might shift from Red to Blue or Blue to Red in Presidential Vote
Carried by Trump/Clinton (electoral votes) (2016 margin)
7:00 pm
Trump Georgia (16) (+5)
Trump Florida (29) (+1.2%)
Clinton Virginia (13) (5.3%)
7:30
Trump Ohio (18) (+5%)
Trump North Carolina (15) (+3.7%)
8:00
Trump Texas (38) (+9%)
Trump Pennsylvania (20) (+0.3%)
Clinton New Hampshire (4) (0.4%)
9:00
Trump Arizona (11) (+3.5%)
Trump Michigan (16) (+0.2%)
Trump Nebraska 2 (1) (+2.2%)
Trump Wisconsin (10) (0.8%)
Clinton Minnesota (10) (+1.5%)
Clinton New Mexico (5) (+8.2%)
10:00
Trump Iowa (6) (+9.3%)
Clinton Nevada (6) (+2.4%)
House seats that could change
The House seems likely to remain in the Democrats’ hands. Key questions are whether the Dem’s increase their margin of control and the ideological shift within the two party caucuses.
The updated version of this viewer’s guide will analyze this set of races.
Senate races
Outlook: To control the Senate, Democrats need a net pickup of three seats if Biden is elected or four if Trump is re-elected. Throughout most of the year, Maine and Colorado have seemed like the most likely pickups while the race in Alabama seems like the most likely loss. The most recent trend is an increase in the number of races for seats held by Republicans that are now considered at least a bit competitive.
W2W4: If Graham is “too close to call” for very long, that doesn’t bode well for the Republicans. If 2/4 candidates from “7-7:30 close” states lose, the Senate is probably lost to the Republicans. Look for early signs of ticket splitting. If people are voting for Biden but for Republican down-ballot candidates, that’s good news for the Republicans.
Polls close at 538.com forecast (Friday)
7:00 SC Graham Harrison 77% Rep
7:30 NC Tillis Cunningham 62% Dem
GA Perdue Ossoff 58% Rep
GA Loeffler 64% Dem
8:00 ME Collins Gideon 59% Dem
9:00 AZ McSally Kelly 80% Dem
CO Gardiner Hickenlooper 83% Dem
10:00 IA Ernst Greenfied 54% Dem
MT Daines Bulloch 66% Rep
State legislature/governor races (TBD)
Control of state legislatures and governors is particularly important in years ending in “0” because the states in that year determine the boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts. A massive Republican victory in state after state in the 2010 election cemented red control for a decade in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. The state legislators elected in scientifically gerrymandered districts enacted voter suppression measures, cut education funding, refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, and emasculated unions. The Democrats have been making steady progress re-establishing their presence in these states; if they are able to seize back control in a few more states they could redress this structural disadvantage. The update of this report will discuss states.