Strategic decisions for Democrats in 2020
As Democrats gear up for the 2020 Presidential election, there are plenty of strategies to consider. The obvious goal is to defeat Donald Trump, but that may not be as easy as some may think. Only two Presidents have been denied 2nd terms since 1980. The incumbent usually is given the electoral edge. Therefore, selecting winning strategies will be critical. Here are four to ponder.
The first decision is actually picking a candidate. Currently there are at least two perspectives on what kind of candidate should run against Donald Trump. The first goes something like this: In 2016, Democrats lost in the Electoral College because President Trump won three battleground States -Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin- by a slim total of 78,000 votes. So winning back these former blue States and carrying the States that Hillary Clinton won, would then give Democrats the win. Under this thinking, “Scranton, PA” Joe Biden may be the best pick to win them back because of his rapport with these industrial Midwest States.
The second perspective insists that the Democratic Party has moved left since 2016. Therefore, a better strategy is to pick a left-leaning, charismatic candidate who can fire up the base and get out the vote. Advocates of this position point to the last three winning Democratic Presidential candidates. They were Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. Each was an outsider with lots of charisma. In contrast, the last three losing Democratic candidates were Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hilary Clinton. They were establishment oriented and perceived as inside the beltway. Under this charismatic thinking, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or Beto O’Rourke may fit the bill.
A second strategic decision is where should Democrats concentrate their efforts? Should they go back to those three Midwest industrial States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) where they barely lost or should they try to expand the Democratic map to States like Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia? The logical answer is that they should try to win in all States, but some strategists see the Sunbelt as ready for Democratic gains. Certainly, if Democrats could pick up the 38 electoral votes in Texas and the 15 votes on North Carolina, that would exceed the 46 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These strategists further argue that these Midwest States may be trending Republican and will be harder to win in 2020.
A third strategic decision is messaging. The Democratic Party has moved left since the 2016 election. Therefore, there will be pressure on candidates to adopt liberal policies like Medicare for all, the Green New Deal, free college education, and a $15 wage. These policies may be a bridge too far for moderate Republicans. An example is suburban, college-educated women who have turned against Donald Trump. These voters were critical to Democratic success in 2018. Yet they may veer back to their Republican roots in response to some of these policies. How Democrats balance and communicate their messaging will be critical to retain and expand their voters.
A fourth strategic consideration is the large number of Democratic candidates vying for the nomination. Right now there are more than a dozen announced candidates with presumably more to come. There are two ways to view this crowded field. Lots of candidates mean lots of choices. With so many running there will be a wealth of ideas that will be tested in the political marketplace. Therefore, the candidate who emerges should be well tested and ready for the general election. Another perspective is less optimistic. The battle for the nomination may become a bloody mess with candidates beating each other up, with no clear candidate emerging as a frontrunner. Under new convention rules, super delegates can only vote after a first ballot shows no clear winner. This could encourage candidates to stay in the race right up to the convention. Under such a scenario the eventual nominee may emerge leading a fractured, dispirited party.
Finally there are those who say don’t worry about any of this. It will unfold one way or the other, and it is way too early to predict how all of these considerations will work out. Besides, Donald Trump destroyed any strategic rules in his run for President.
So settle back. Watching this unfold will certainly be interesting.
Tom DeLoe serves on the steering committee of Democracy for America and is a Gettysburg resident.