What’s at Stake: Control of the House or Senate
There has been much discussion of the possibility of the Democrats regaining control of one or both Houses of Congress. This article will look at the possible results if Democrats gain control of one or both Houses and the likelihood of this happening.
“Control of the House”
What’s required? The current makeup of the House is 236-193 (House membership constantly fluctuates by a few seats). If 24 seats change from Republican to Democratic control, the Dem’s will control the house.
How likely is it? Even in a good year for Democrats, gaining control of the House is difficult. Congressional districts are highly gerrymandered in Republican-controlled states, concentrating Democratic votes in a few districts and creating an artificial number of Republican districts. This effect is magnified by the tendency of Democrats to concentrate in urban areas. As a result, to gain control of the House the Democrats must win far more than half the overall votes cast for Congress. (In recent elections, the Republicans have received about a 5% “bonus” of seats compared to the total national vote for the House.) In highly gerrymandered states like Pennsylvania, the effect is more extreme. In 2016, for example, PA Democratic congressional candidates won 46% of the total statewide vote, but won only 5 of 18 races.
In mid-August, professional election watchers like the Cook Report and Five Thirty Eight.com predict a likely Democratic takeover of the House, with Five-Thirty Eight.com giving the Democrats a 3:1 chance. But the predicted results are very close: the seats that will decide control of the House are currently ranked in the “toss-up” category. Five Thirty Eight forecasts a narrow 227-208 advantage for the Democrats.
What’s at stake? The party controlling the House picks a Speaker, who stands third in line to the presidency.
Additionally, in an era of nearly 100% party line voting, Democratic control of either House will basically end the Trump administration’s ability to pass legislation and may even lead to House passage of progressive legislative proposals such as “Medicare for all,” immigration reform, or minimum wage. Such legislation would have little chance in the Senate, but still control of the House would give the Democrats a policy platform that has been lacking.
In particular, control of either House of Congress will probably give the Democrats increased leverage over spending bills. With Democratic control, the Republicans would no longer be able to attempt “one party only” legislation—there will be more need to bring Dem’s in on discussions.
Perhaps more significantly, the majority party controls committee chairmanships and sets the agenda for hearings, investigations, subpoenas, etc. Investigations will be launched on Trump family finances, emoluments, Russian election interference, influence peddling and privatization proposals at Veterans Affairs, and other Trump administration scandals.
Democrats might also pursue impeachment in the House, though there is almost no chance such a resolution would gain the 2/3 support needed in the Senate for conviction.
The routine process of congressional oversight is also critically important and has been neglected in recent years. Rigorous program oversight could shine a light on issues such as politicization of the census; dismantling diplomatic, climate change, and other federal capabilities; tariffs, North Korea and Iran, national park closures, Education Department rules to reduce protections for student loans; civil rights law enforcement; white nationalist groups; police shootings; and a host of other issues.
“Control of the Senate”
What’s required? The current Senate membership is 51 Republican seats (including the temporary vacancy created by the death of John McCain), 47 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of VT and Angus King of ME) who caucus with the Democrats. Because Vice President Mike Pence casts the tie-breaking vote, a 50-50 breakdown means the presidential party controls the Senate.
Only a third of the Senate seats are elected each two-year term and the makeup of the class of 2018 is unfavorable to the Democrats. In 2018, the Democrats must defend 26 seats (including Senators from normally red states such as ND, MT, IN, and MO). To gain control of the Senate, the Democrats must defend every current seat and pick up two more.
How likely is it? Regaining control of the Senate seems more of a challenge than gaining control of the House. The current Cook Report finds 5 Democratic-held seats (FL, IN, MO, ND, and WV) and three Republican seats (AZ, NV, and TN) to be “toss-ups.” The fate of these eight seats will undoubtedly determine control of the Senate.
What’s at stake? Again, gaining a Senate majority would allow Democrats to appoint committee chairs, set the oversight and legislative agenda, and issue subpoenas. But the Senate is different in a few ways.
Given the requirement for 60 votes to bring legislation to the floor, the Senate’s ability to pass legislation routinely won’t be affected by the results of the 2018 mid-terms. However, the reconciliation process allows the Senate to pass a few financial bills with only 51 votes. If the GOP holds both chambers next year, the party would probably try again to repeal Obamacare through reconciliation and might also use reconciliation to attack food stamps, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
The most consequential Senate authority is to confirm judicial appointments. Judicial confirmations would become much more uncertain if the Democrats controlled the Senate.
State elections
Although they tend to be lower profile, votes in State elections are equally important. Issues such as Medicaid expansion, school funding, redistricting, and voter laws are settled at the state level.
Perhaps most important is the issue of control of the 2020 census and the consequent reapportioning of legislative seats. The 2010 electoral catastrophe allowed new Republican controlled governments in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina to gerrymander congressional and state legislative districts. Although the next redistricting will happen after the 2020 census, many of the decision-makers, including the Pennsylvania Senate and governor, will be elected to 4-year terms in the 2018 election.
Leon Reed is a retired Congressional aide and defense consultant. He is a member of the Government Accountability Task Force of the Gettysburg Democracy for America.