Predicting the future in Washington

Election polls and predictions have been particularly turbulent and definitive forecasts are difficult even in the last days before the election. Polls have been volatile and an unusual number of races are still in the margin of error. Political Washington will follow one of two paths immediately after the election. An era of bipartisan cooperation does not appear to be one of the options.

Option 1: Dems carry at least the House and pick up a goodly number of Governor seats

A Democratic takeover of the House, especially if they have a good night in state elections as well, will mean more than a lot of subpoenas and oversight hearings (though it will certainly mean that).

Leadership of committees will increase the Democrats’ power. While there won’t be much new legislation, the Dems will be in a position to have some influence over federal agencies and policy. Secretary Zinke will probably still want to sell off national monuments and the president’s Mar-a-Lago buddies will still want to privatize the Department of Veterans Affairs. But these actions will become harder with a committee chairman and a democratic committee majority looking over their shoulder. Imagine the discussions Secretary Mattis, the Joint Chiefs, and the theater commander would be having with the Democrat-led Armed Services committee right now about the proposed deployment of multiple brigades to defend the border and the prospect of those soldiers being given orders to fire live ammunition at rock-throwers.

Democratic control of the House will also create credible Democratic voices on public issues. The ranking member of a committee is just another talking head; a committee chair is an august figure whose opinions carry weight. The Democrats have lacked for an official spokesperson on issues and so have relied on the Eric Swalwell’s and other media-eager members to carry the message. The chair of Foreign Relations, especially one from the non-presidential party, is an authoritative voice.

Control of the House will also allow the Democrats to bring “messaging” bills to the floor and force “messaging” votes, all the while forcing Republicans to take “wrong” votes. This consists of taking a series of votes to pass popular legislation that is known to have no chance to clear the Senate. For example, the Dems will almost certainly pass something labeled “infrastructure,” plus a bill to take care of DACA dreamers, a “middle class tax relief” bill, a “pre-existing conditions coverage guarantee,” a “livable minimum wage act,” and “affordable college and trade school for all” legislation, forcing the Republicans to make a long record of unpopular or embarrassing votes.

A bad night for the GOP may also loosen Trump’s grip on the GOP a bit. Republican office-holders have no love for the president but have hitched their careers to him out of fear of his criticism and, especially since the Kavanaugh confirmation, because he seems to be “winning.” Trump’s placement of himself at the center of the midterms ensures he will take the blame for any GOP disappointments. Particularly in the Senate, the situation in 2020 is almost as bad for the Republicans as 2018 was for the Democrats. The GOP will be defending 21 Senate seats (though few are in Blue states) while the Democrats only defend 12, If Trump has failed in this election cycle, those senators are much more likely than the class of 2018 to seek their own path. 

Option 1A: The Senate

If the Dems don’t take the Senate (and no forecaster predicts they will), the GOP judicial confirmation assembly line will continue unabated. There could easily be another Supreme Court vacancy by the 2020 election (Thomas, Breyer, and Ginsberg are all advancing in years). Especially if one of the liberals fell, a third Trump appointment, along with another two years of filling district/circuit judges would signal a generational catastrophe in the courts.         

In the extremely unlikely event Dems control both Houses, it would slow down judicial nominations and provide even more outlets for congressional oversight. It won’t have much effect on legislation since there is no chance the Dems will have a large enough Senate majority to bring legislation to the floor and anything that passed would probably face a presidential veto.

Option 2: Reps hold the House and grow their lead in the Senate by a seat or two

The result of Republicans holding all the institutions they hold now will NOT be “more of the same.” Trump will be emboldened to take, if it is possible, even more aggressive action and the GOP caucuses will be even more in his thrall. 

It could make a huge difference if the GOP picks up one or two Senate seats (which is possible). The GOP had little trouble getting legislation through the House but was repeatedly frustrated when only 3 Republican senators voted no. If they hold both Houses, an increased margin in the Senate will give them a greater cushion (not to mention making it easier to attract crossover votes).

Early on the agenda will be to push a round of severe budget cuts; outright repeal of the ACA; and significant cuts to and restructuring of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. 

The GOP will pursue as much of this as they can through the reconciliation process, which allows financial-related bills to be considered by the Senate with only 51 vote majorities.

With renewed control and an emboldened president, it is also likely that the administration will take a hard line on immigration, moving forward with topics such as: removing birthright citizenship, the Wall, abolishing DACA protections, reducing legal immigration quotas, etc.

A GOP controlled Congress would probably move forward with other measures to perpetuate GOP domination, such as voter ID and other voter suppression at the federal level. They could very well also vote to extend the types of abortion restrictions that have been adopted in red states to the federal level, restrict climate change research, act to “protect religious freedom,” and take other actions to support the right wing “culture war” position. 

Longterm prognosis

Even if the GOP controls both Houses of Congress, there are long term problems brewing on the political front. The Senate situation in 2020 and 2022 will be the opposite of 2018 – the Republicans will be defending a lot of seats and highly vulnerable to losses. In 2020, only 12 Democrats will be up for re-election (and only Doug Jones of Alabama looks extremely vulnerable), while the Republicans must defend 21 Senate seats. 

Second, an economic downturn is almost inevitable before 2020. Large portions of Trump’s approval on the image of “turned the economy around.” Rising interest rates are going to increase the deficit and, together with Trump’s tariffs and trade wars, are also going to slow down the economy. The president is not likely to react to economic bad news with dignity and resolve (he’s already publicly criticizing his Fed Chair). And, with the government already running near-record deficits in a time of full employment, it has no counter-cyclical tools to stimulate the economy. Both of these phenomena will challenge the Trump presidency.

Leon Reed is a retired Congressional aide and defense consultant. He is a member of the Government Accountability Task Force of the Gettysburg Democracy for America.