Leading on empty
Congress and the President will be back in Washington following the August recess. August is supposed to be the laid back month in American politics. Congress is usually out of session. The President normally goes on vacation, and Washington, DC is quiet. Not so this year. North Korea, Charlottesville, Barcelona, Steve Bannon’s departure, hurricane Harvey, and the President’s daily pronouncements made this August as tense as any since Richard Nixon’s Presidential resignation in August, 1973.
This fall will be no better in terms of upheaval. Forget tax reform. When Congress returns in September, they have a few weeks to enact a budget to keep the government running, raise the debt ceiling to avoid a government default on payment obligations, and renew the Children’s Health Insurance Program to continue basic healthcare for children. This does not even count shoring up the Affordable Care Act which is on life support. These would normally be basic housekeeping type activities, but for this Congress and this President they will be monumental and possibly insurmountable tasks.
Neither Party seems capable of leading at this point. Republicans can win elections but cannot govern. Democrats might be able to govern, but cannot win elections particularly in the heartland. What we may be witnessing is the weakening of both political parties to the point of leadership crises and government paralysis.
The Democratic Party has been losing elections since 2010. In spite of the Presidential victories of Barak Obama, the last seven years have been devastating to the Party. The Democrats now control only 15 governorships, and no federal branch of government. They have only 194 seats in the House and 48 in the Senate. They have also lost over 1000 seats in state legislatures over the past seven years. You have to go back to the 1920’s to find a comparable low period for the Party.
Gerrymandered districts are one reason for the loses. However, others are of the Party’s own making and include lackluster candidates, incoherent messaging, and low voter turnout. The Party is hoping to regain House and Senate seats in the 2018 elections. However, that will be an uphill climb. Democrats need to gain 24 seats to retake the House, and must defend 25 seats in the Senate. So the Party that at least purports to have solutions to major issues has no leverage and has an uphill climb to regain control of Congress.
Contrast this with the Republican Party. They win elections. This is true even in the face of some terrible policy blunders like the Iraq war and the Great Recession. The Republicans own 35 Governorships, the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. They also control 68% of State Legislative chambers. Reasons for this electoral success include favorable gerrymandered districts, committed candidates, and enthusiastic voters. The Party has adapted well to the politics of the 21st Century by emphasizing class and culture along with developing expert messaging. Their electoral wins are not always pretty but they are effective.
The problem for Republicans is they are either unwilling or unable to govern. They have no concrete ideas other than to keep government off of the backs of the citizenry. So they promote lower taxes, less regulation, and cuts to some government services. Beyond that, they have no ideas to improve our social and economic conditions. The healthcare debacle is a case in point. They wanted to repeal the Affordable Care Act – especially the taxes associated with it. However, they had no ideas about a replacement law even after seven years of campaigning on “repeal and replace.” The Party desperately needs to develop concrete ideas that will improve people’s lives.
My sense is that many of our citizens would like more involvement from our government. Globalization and technological development have been devastating for many. Income inequality and income stagnation have made higher education, housing, and basic healthcare unaffordable. Many think we need a more activist government to address these and other pressing issues. However, we will be lucky if we can get through this fall without a government shutdown or a reneging on our debt obligations. Forget proactive initiatives. Unfortunately, we are stuck with a government that is leading on empty.