Local Democratic organizers are expanding get-out-the-vote efforts as the March 17 special election for Pennsylvania’s 193rd House District approaches, following analysis suggesting the traditionally Republican seat could be competitive under low-turnout conditions.
The Democratic candidate is Cumberland County resident Todd Crawley.
The special election was scheduled after Republican Rep. Torren Ecker resigned the seat following his election in November as an Adams County judge. Voters in portions of Adams and Cumberland counties will choose between Crawley and Republican nominee Catherine Wallen.
A recent article published by Valley PA Indivisible argues that the race could become a rare Democratic pickup if turnout patterns typical of special elections hold. The analysis contends that special elections generally attract significantly fewer voters than general elections, potentially reducing the advantage normally held by the party with stronger registration numbers. Under those conditions, organizers say voter mobilization and independent voter outreach can play an outsized role.
Much of the analysis relies on turnout modeling and comparisons with recent special elections nationwide. It notes that Democrats have flipped several Republican-held seats in low-turnout contests in recent years and cites a Louisiana legislative race in which a Democrat won in a heavily Republican district despite being significantly outspent. Based on precinct registration and past turnout data, the article estimates turnout in PA-193 could fall as low as 27 percent, arguing that smaller electorates increase the influence of independent voters and organized grassroots outreach.
The analysis concludes that while Republicans retain a registration advantage, Democrats could remain competitive if they successfully mobilize supporters and persuade independent voters, suggesting enthusiasm and organization may matter more than party registration totals in a special election environment.
Addressing this possibility, the Adams County Democratic Committee (ACDC) has begun expanding volunteer activities aimed at increasing turnout.
ACDC organizers say about 400 campaign envelopes remain to be stuffed and addressed, and volunteers are being asked to stop by party headquarters between noon and 4 p.m. daily to pick up packets of approximately 30 addresses. Volunteers do not need to live within the 193rd district to participate. Postage will be provided, and mailings must be completed before Feb. 28.
Additional outreach efforts include an online phone-banking event hosted by ACDC and the Gettysburg College Democrats scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 26, from 6 to 7:30 p.m., during which volunteers will contact Democratic voters to encourage participation in the election.
Door-to-door canvassing is planned for Saturday, Feb. 28, beginning at 10 a.m. Volunteers will meet behind the chapel at Gettysburg College to receive voter lists, scripts, and training before visiting Democratic households. Organizers said materials and instructions can also be provided separately for those unable to attend the campus meeting.
Nomination petitions for several Democratic candidates in the upcoming primary election are also available for signature at party headquarters. Statewide petitions include Gov. Josh Shapiro, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, and congressional candidate Beth Farnham. In the 193rd House District, candidates Neil Clifford and Todd Crawley are collecting signatures, while Tony Nunez-Guzman, Kathleen Pratt, and Timothy Coulter are gathering signatures in the 91st House District. Roger Lund and Helen Cook are seeking signatures to represent Adams County on the State Democratic Committee. Voters may sign only one petition per race when multiple candidates are listed.
Organizers also announced a chili and grilled cheese fundraiser and petition-signing event scheduled for Sunday, March 1, from 1 to 4 p.m., where attendees may meet candidates and support local party activities.
Weekly rallies are set to resume Saturday, Feb. 28, from noon to 1 p.m. in Lincoln Square in downtown Gettysburg.
Charles Stangor is a retired psychology professor who publishes the local news website Gettysburg Connection. He's a member of DFA's Communication and Local Elections Committees.